NBA offseason winners & losers

Another crazy NBA offseason is coming to a conclusion, and with so much action, it’s difficult to keep track of what each team did. Let’s break it down into the winners and losers by analysing key moves and seeing which teams set themselves up for success or have been left behind.

Winner: Oklahoma City Thunder

The young Thunder were the surprise of the 2023-24 season, finishing as the number 1 seed in the West with a 57-25 record. A second-round exit at the hands of the Mavericks saw the end of a successful season but also highlighted some key needs for them to take the next step. The Thunder brought in 2x All-Defensive player Alex Caruso in a trade with Chicago for Josh Giddey and signed former Knicks center Isaiah Hartenstein for 3 years, $87 million. They addressed the need for more center play with or behind young star Chet Holmgren and added further perimeter defence to add to a range of good defenders, making them a nightmare matchup for opponent ball handlers. These two make countless winning plays on the court and are perfect fits for this young Thunder outfit. Re-signing their own role players in Aaron Wiggins and Isiah Joe (5 years, $47 million & 4 years, $48 million) is the cherry on top and solidifies the Thunder as a true title contender this season.

Loser: Denver Nuggets

Denver makes it back-to-back offseasons losing a key piece from their championship roster in 2023 as the second apron strikes again. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope left for the Magic, signing a 3-year, $66 million deal after Bruce Brown left the season prior. Pope shot 40% from three last year and was the Nuggets’ best perimeter defender, a key part of one of the best starting fives in the league over previous seasons. Along with Pope, Reggie Jackson was traded away for 3 second-round picks, meaning young guards Christian Braun, Julian Strawther, Jalen Pickett, and Hunter Tyson should all see significant playing time this season. If Denver wants to compete again, they’ll need a big leap from their young core, which also includes Peyton Watson and DaRon Holmes, who was picked 22nd overall out of Dayton.

Winner: Brooklyn Nets

The Nets are winners for a different reason than usual. They entered the offseason lost, stuck in NBA purgatory, but now find themselves with a sense of direction for the first time since breaking up their big 3. They were able to regain control of their future first-round picks from Houston in 2025 and 2026 by giving up future Phoenix picks (full trade details here). With control of their own picks, it meant Brooklyn was free to try and tank and trade away Mikal Bridges for maximum assets. They sent him to New York, reuniting the Villanova squad in return for 4 unprotected picks, a swap, a Bucks protected pick, and Bojan Bogdanovic. This is a fantastic haul for the Nets, even for such a valued player in Bridges, and will kickstart the Nets’ rebuild, giving them a chance at landing a blue-chip prospect in these coming drafts. In addition to these moves, they re-signed center Nic Claxton for 4 years, $100 million, which is a little expensive but a player I really like with his shot-blocking and ability to guard in space, capping off a great offseason in Brooklyn.

Loser: Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers again entered the offseason with a big wish list and leave empty-handed. There was nothing they did that was particularly bad because they didn’t really do anything. Taurean Prince departs after starting 49 games as the only departure, while Dalton Knecht was widely seen as the steal of the draft, getting the ready-made sniper at pick 17. The issue with their offseason is the clock they’re on, with LeBron James creeping towards the end of his career. The Lakers were unable to surround him and Davis with a more talented supporting cast. Additionally, I feel there are going to be a lot of distractions around the team with the Bronny James storyline that will become a media focus this season. I think it’s going to be an awesome moment to see them share the court this year, but I fear it may become another distraction for a team with already so many headlines. I think J.J. Reddick will be a damn good coach in this league, but he’s got his hands full in year one.

Winner: Philadelphia 76ers

Daryl Morely has been dreaming of this free agency for quite some time, and he nailed it. He secured the big prize of the offseason in Paul George, coming off a near All-NBA season, averaging 23 ppg on 47/41/91 shooting splits. The deal is worth $212 million across 4 seasons after George left the Clippers when they refused to add the fourth season to his contract. Philly is entering the season with a nearly brand new roster, signing key role players in Caleb Martin (4 years, $32 million), Andre Drummond (2 years, $10 million), Eric Gordon (1 year, Vet Minimum), plus Jared McCain with the 16th pick in the draft. Health will remain the key question with this outfit, as Paul George is coming off playing 74 games in the regular season last year, his highest for the previous five seasons, while Joel Embiid’s issues are well documented, being unable to play in the playoffs fully healthy to date. If they can stay healthy, they’re a legitimate threat to Boston in the Eastern Conference.

Loser: Los Angeles Clippers

The Paul George departure now finds the Clippers in no man’s land. In such a competitive Western Conference, a play-in game feels like the ceiling for this roster. They’ve added around the edges using the George money, notably Derrick Jones Jr. (3 years, $30 million) plus Nic Batum and Mo Bamba. Coming off a 51-win season but a first-round exit, the Clippers had a decision to make around their future with their core and decided the added cap flexibility was better than doubling down on the Kawhi-George duo that netted 3 playoff series wins. Without a vintage Harden season or some Kawhi magic, I find it difficult to see this team making any noise come playoff time.

Winner: San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs had one mission this offseason: find their generational talent Victor Wembanyama a playmaker. They’re not trying to compete yet, but surrounding this kid with good NBA players early in his career is crucial for his continued development. They went and got one of the NBA’s best ever in Chris Paul, who has a good track record of going to new teams and making them better (forget about last year) while mentoring young players into league stars. Additionally, they secured future assets by moving Rob Dillingham to Minnesota and helped facilitate the DeRozan trade, which landed them Harrison Barnes, who can play a similar role to Paul with solid play and leadership. While Paul gives this unit a lead guard in the short term, Stephon Castle, their pick 4 in the draft, holds the key to the position moving forward and will likely be the big beneficiary of the Chris Paul point guard school.

Loser: Aging East Contenders

Grouping the Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks together here for similar reasons. After both being first-round exits last season, neither of them made significant moves to upgrade their roster. To be fair, both had their star players out injured during the playoffs with Jimmy Butler and Giannis Antetokounmpo, but the Celtics were out of reach, and now with the ascension of the Knicks and the 76ers, they find themselves in the second tier of contenders. The Bucks signed Taurean Prince to a vet minimum, replacing the loss of Malik Beasley, while the Heat re-signed most of their roster but lost the Celtic killer Caleb Martin. Miami did make one of my favourite draft picks at 15 with Kel’el Ware from Indiana, who should see good minutes, but it may be asking a lot of a rookie to make a significant impact at this stage of his career. I’m not ruling these two out of a Finals appearance, but I think there’s a significant talent gap now in the East, and they would be relying on their superstars for further playoff heroics.

*Update the Bucks signed Gary Trent Jr after this post on a team friendly veteran minimum contract. Helps their offseason a lot but not a ground breaking move, probably takes them off the loser list however.